02 / ai infrastructure · 7 records
The compute, cloud and physical economics underneath the models.
96% of CFOs in Cloud Capital's research said multiple AI cost categories exceeded forecast in H1 2026. The largest overruns were in compute infrastructure and data, ahead of model and token costs.
rec 02.006
Gold has LBMA, oil has Brent, natural gas has Henry Hub. Compute, now central to AI unit economics, still has no reference price.
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volatility > performance
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As growth normalises, the questions become who absorbs volatility and where the economics settle, as happened in payments infrastructure. Scepticism here is about value capture, not the technology.
rec 02.003
Hyperscaler CapEx does not stay with them. It always rolls downhill.
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Why AWS’s quiet policy shift this summer could accelerate the reckoning for AI startups still running on imaginary margins.
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AI startups are finding out the hard way: AI is spenny.
